Tuesday 19 January 2010

Inflation increasing

Could this be the beginning of long term high inflation?

CPI has been reported by the Office of National Statistics as being 2.9% for December 2009. An increase of 1% over November's rate.

RPI is being reported as 2.4% for the same month, an increase of 2.1%. This figure includes mortgage interest payments.

RPIX is at 3.8%, and increase of 1.2% from November. This figure does NOT include mortgages. It is an indicator of things that people buy regardless of what sort of home they live in. This number is the one that affects those that are not homeowners, typically those that are less well-off within society and the young, and those that have paid off their mortgages such as pensioners.

The poorest people and those without massive homeloans are seeing inflation of almost 4%. This is very close to the historical average level of inflation seen since the end of World War 2.

Inflation has been low for a very long time. I expect it to shoot past the current levels by a large margin. Call it a correction in the inflation trend. A correction that is long overdue.

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